By J. Bruce Richardson, Corridor Rail Development Corporation; April 9, 2021
“Oh, boy! Oh, boy! Oh, boy! Look! That bright blue line! We’re going to have our own new train!”
And so it goes all over the country as rookie journalists attempt to explain to their readers/listeners about the Amtrak Connects US plan for 2035 after looking at a proposed map.
How wrong they are.
Corridor Rail Development Corporation Executive Chairman James Coston explained, “Amazing how Amtrak can draw a line on a map, and areas of the country suddenly believe they’re going to get great, big, beautiful routes and trains in no time.”
The rookie journalists – and their audience – in most instances have no idea what it takes to turn a freshly drawn line on a map into reality.
Even if the people launching a new train aren’t Amtrak with the accompanying bureaucracy and solid commitment to get things done in terms of decades instead of months and years, turning a proposed line on a map into a functioning route takes effort.
Chatting with the host railroad about a new route or additional frequency on an existing route is a carefully choreographed dance.
To initiate a conversation with a host railroad there has to be an understanding this is a serious project and worthy of their time for even considering an establishing meeting. The host railroad wants to know basics like funding, viability and seriousness of the project. The host railroad will correctly say it takes a lot of expensive headquarters professional staff effort to examine a project, see if it fits into the railroad’s long term plans and track availability and how much conflict it will cause with present and future operations.
Here’s the problem: In order to gather all of this information to present to the railroad you first need to know its requirements and whether or not the railroad will commit to looking seriously at the project. So, you have to have that first establishing meeting to gather that information to prove you are worth their time and effort to talk with … but they don’t want to have a meeting with someone just having a “what if” conversation.
It’s very much the same conundrum freshly minted college graduates looking for their first job have; every company is looking for someone with experience, but no one is willing to give that first job so a graduate can offer experience to prospective employers.
Once, somehow, that first meeting has taken place, then there is the question of equipment. You can’t determine how much equipment you need until you have a good ridership study to provide reliable estimates of how much business is available to populate the new trains. Some will say these ridership estimates are easy – just take a percentage of the total travel market along the route and estimate how much of that can be converted to passenger rail.
But, it’s not that easy because in most of the country – thanks to an ignorant news media – most prospective passengers don’t even know what’s-what about riding a train.
The news media has a terrible tendency to use words they wrongly believe are interchangeable to describe passenger trains.
Just to get it out of the way – it’s clear any journalist/hack writer who willingly chooses to use the term “choo choo” should be banished to the nightside police beat where they can only do so much harm. Just as bad, these same writers will always say the person driving the train is the “conductor,” not the engineer or even simply the train’s driver. Indeed, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
Modern day reporters/writers/sadly, editors think the terms “passenger train,” “commuter train,” “subway” and “monorail” all mean the same thing. It’s enough to make the ghost of William Randolph Hearst turn pale.
Once a reliable ridership study is in hand then the next chore is to make equipment decisions.
If you are intent on trying to beat the load factor game by having a short train and therefore a high load factor then you are only fooling yourself. What about holiday surge periods? What happens if your marketing is better than you thought and suddenly your new train is a success? How much revenue and business are you willing to turn away – perhaps the difference between financial failure and success – because you don’t have enough carrying capacity?
Part of this process is determining frequency of operation. The model of a single train a day (or less) in each direction is highly limiting and discredited. Two frequencies a day is a bare minimum; three is better, four is better than three. Beyond that will be determined by your ridership study.
Simultaneous to all of this is gathering facts and figures for the financial part of your business plan. The most important element of this is to have two completely separate people working on these numbers. The person putting together the ridership, load factor and revenue numbers must be completely independent of the person putting together the headquarters, maintenance and operating numbers.
Why keep them separate? Because there is a human tendency for new and proposed projects to try and make numbers “match up” to arrive at a positive financial outcome. Revenue and expense numbers must be compiled independently. If they match up negatively then it’s a matter of changing the business plan to improve the numbers, not fudging the load factors or length of trip numbers to make the numbers advantageous.
If your numbers are not pure, your business plan will not be pure. If your business plan is not pure, you will not be successful and will disappoint you and your investors/financial backers, and set the cause of passenger rail back by years.
We have recently witnessed the ongoing financial havoc caused by one reckless private operator who was completely divorced from reality. When they finally ran out of gullible investors the mini-empire they had built turned out to be a house of cards which collapsed with a dull thud. All of their rail operations ceased; related businesses came to an abrupt end. It turned out almost everyone they had contact with or touched will be financially cleaning up for years after their mess.
Once you have completed your business plan and are confident in your numbers it’s time to go back to the host railroad and make a presentation. The host railroad will have a full set of questions which must be answered to again assure them you will be a competent partner with the host railroad. It truly is a partnership because there must be a positive outcome for both parties. Even if the early weeks of a new operation may be a bit rough, in the end, joint operations over the host railroad tracks must meld together seamlessly.
The point has been reached when all contracts are in place. Whatever capacity issues the host railroad had have been resolved and they are looking forward to your monthly check to cover operations.
Your station facilities are in place. Your maintenance bases have been established. Your equipment is on hand and ready to roll. Headquarters, maintenance and operating employees have been hired. Your pre-launch marketing campaign has been both informative and enlightening. Your new reservations bureau is booking passengers on an hourly basis. You are ready to go.
All of the train and engine crew familiarization runs have been completed and it’s inauguration day. Your cheerful, well trained, snappily-uniformed onboard services crews welcome the first passengers. It’s an on-time departure and your new train disappears down the track.
Hopefully, this is the start of something wonderful.
This is a greatly abbreviated version of what has to happen to launch a new train route or additional train on an existing route. With an available equipment pool it can be accomplished in months and an adjoining year in many cases in place of the usual multi-year/decades long process many are familiar with through the Amtrak model.
Politics and government funding always slows things down; bureaucrats seldom are motivated to move anything along outside of their normal work routine and even if they do move a bit faster still love to have multiple meetings and conference calls about the most minimal details.
In the end, it’s much more than drawing lines on a map and saying “Oh, boy! We’re going to have a train!”